The irrelevance of opinion polls a long time out from an election

While updating my table of The Australian's Newspoll results today (you will find the collection HERE) it struck me once again just how irrelevant poll results are a long time out from an election.
The table below compares Labor's two party vote 15 months after an election (like the one this week) with Labor's actual vote at the following election.


Labor on Newspoll 15 months after an election Labor vote at next election Difference in percentage points
55 49.3 5.7
43 46.5 3.5
58 50.1 7.9
48 52.7 4.7
49 47.2 1.8

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Is Scott Morrison getting ahead of Malcolm Turnbull in the GST debate?

Image
Michelle Grattan , University of Canberra Scott Morrison has become a true believer in the cause of raising the GST, determined to drive a major switch in the tax mix. The big question is whether Malcolm Turnbull will end up in the same place as his treasurer. Turnbull is keeping his options open. “Changes to the GST are certainly part of the tax debate and certainly being actively considered by the government,” he said on Friday. If Turnbull agrees with Morrison, all will be well and good between them. On the other hand if Turnbull eventually opts for caution and doesn’t walk down the GST road, or in the shorter term feels Morrison is getting ahead of the game, that would be awkward for the gung-ho minister, who would the need to manage his retreat. Morrison wants a high profile and he seeks the limelight. But that carries risks. There is always that salutary tale from Labor days. Paul Keating was passionate about introducing a broad-based consumption tax. Bob Hawke let
Read more

Prime Minister Scott Morrison under pressure as the question about knowledge of a rape gets embarrassing

Image
Any    day   of   the   week Five words by Scott Morrison that fired up social media commentators today. #NotMyPM pic.twitter.com/YiGTGzLNU5 — M🕯️cr💧ft ...... 🍥 🐒🚶......🧠 (@KaurnaCopia) March 18, 2021 They saw an angry and embarrassed Prime Minister. A politician under considerable pressure. Looking for a way out and not being able to see it. Hansard tells the story of how it came about: Members of Parliament: Staff  Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Leader of the Opposition) (14:33): My question is to the Prime Minister. Thirty days ago, the Prime Minister told this House that he asked his former chief of staff, one of the few people he's ever shown empathy for, to verify what his office knew about the reported sexual assault of Brittany Higgins only metres from where he works. Mr Gaetjens reported his findings on the Prime Minister's sports rorts within two weeks. Why is this report, about the Prime Minister's staff, taking so long, and will the Prime Minister release this
Read more

Making a mockery of Labor Party pre-selections

  The shenanigans of the SA branch of the Labor Party just gets worse and worse. The Federal Executive of the Party should intervene to stop this madness. What follows is a post I received this evening from my friend Maggie Dawkins about her daughter Alice's courageous decision to take on the power brokers and seek preselection for the seat of Spence. "Alice innocently exercised her right as an ordinary member of the Labor Party to nominate for Spence. What she may inadvertently have stumbled upon is a done deal agreed to by faceless power brokers of the Left and Right factions. Ordinary members have not been consulted, but it is all leaking out as Alice calls the SA Party office to account. It appears that many members may not be comfortable with this done deal, as they are contacting me, not only as Alice’s mum, but also as a board member of Whistle Blowers Australia. Is the deal correct? Who knows? Perhaps time will tell? We know that some of it is correct, for example, Ni
Read more