Toss a coin and take your pick.
Melbourne Cup Day will be an even money bet according to the Crikey Interest Rate Indicator. The market cannot split a no change decision by the Reserve Bank Board and an increase of 0.25 percentage points in the official rate. I notice that this morning one of the previously interest rate hawkish economists is now moving to the side of the no increase doves. According to Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans, the decision by the Board to hold rates steady in October surprised him:
Unless there is something quite surprising in the consumer price index figures due out next Wednesday and inflation is unexpectedly shown to be increasing, I expect the newly dovish Mr Evans to be right. I for one am backing the no rise option. |
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